A 20% drop in exports to the Middle East shows clear result of conflict on trade

Credit: EMC

The East Midlands Chamber has said that a cut of one fifth in export documents issued by chambers of commerce across the UK to firms exporting to Middle East and Arab League countries, as reported in newly published national data, underlines the challenge the Iran War has caused for international trade to countries in the region.

Research conducted by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) compared the number of Certificates of Origin – key customs documents issued to exporters at the start of their export journey – issued by chambers of commerce across the UK from March 2025 to March 2026.

Data collected by East Midlands Chamber echoes the national findings, with a 45% fall in export documents supplied in the 45 days after the conflict began, against the same number of days immediately before that point.

National findings from the BCC research:

• 10% drop in total UK Certificates of Origin issued by chambers of commerce to exporters
• 20% drop in certificates for Arab markets
• 4% drop in certificates for non-Arab markets

Findings from East Midlands Chamber’s issuing of Certificates of Origin:

• In the 45 days prior to the Middle East conflict, East Midlands Chamber issued 353 documents to core Middle East countries, while in the 45 days since, 222 were issued – a drop of 45%.

East Midlands Chamber Head of International Trade Lucy Granger said: “The damaging effect of the Middle East conflict on export to that region and to Arab League countries is clear to see and will have added significant challenge to firms, especially SMEs, that send goods to those parts of the world.

“Certificates of Origin are essential documents that any firm that exports overseas need to obtain and chambers of commerce, like East Midlands Chamber, typically issue those to get the ball rolling on the export journey. For the issuing of those documents for export to Middle East and Arab League countries to have already fallen by a fifth, as found by British Chambers of Commerce data at national level, underlines the disruption the conflict, limiting trade corridors, is having.

“For an exporter to need to look at different routes to move their goods, which may be less efficient or less suited to how they wish to operate, is likely to bring delays and higher associated costs, so the situation is no good.

“The British Chambers of Commerce, in partnership with the Foreign Office, deliver a very useful Diplomatic Advisory Hub – a place where exporters can get the latest guidance on overseas trade and I would urge businesses to visit, especially if anxious about export to Arab League or Middle East countries.”