Growth forecast improves but Budget must support business as 2027 downgraded

Richard Blackmore from The East Midlands Chamber

East Midlands Chamber has renewed its call for the Autumn Budget to ease pressure on business and incentivise investment, after revised forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicted 1.1% UK growth in 2026 and 1% in 2027.

The OECD figure for 2026 has been revised upwards from 0.9% it predicted in June, while the prediction of 1% growth for 2027 is downgraded from 1.1% forecast in June.

East Midlands Chamber Director of External Affairs Richard Blackmore said: “An improved UK growth forecast from the OECD for 2026, upgraded from its forecast published in June this year, is encouraging to see and, at face value, echoes the fairly positive outlook our recently published Quarterly Economic Survey data revealed for the third quarter of 2026.

“In the findings of our Quarterly Economic Survey, East Midlands businesses reported higher expectations of increased profitability and turnover than they had reported in previous quarters, while more businesses had plans to increase their workforce and invest in training and machinery.

“Some caution is needed though, with only weeks to go to the Autumn Budget on 28th October. On that day sentiment could change unless business is fully supported for growth in announcements made that day, so it’s essential that happens.

“The fact the OECD has downgraded its growth projection for 2027 by 0.1% from the forecast it published in June, underlines how, while the economy may have shown resilience in 2026, things are not as stable as they could be. Geopolitical factors like the ongoing Middle East conflict and resulting high energy costs, for example, will be having an effect, as joint research we carried out for the Midlands, produced in partnership with three other chambers of commerce earlier this year, showed.

“The East Midlands is a major contributor to the UK economy and for growth to be fully unlocked, business will be eager to see the Chancellor seize the opportunity to unlock growth with supportive measures in the Autumn Budget.

“Let’s see corporate taxation addressed on that day, a full root and branch review announced on business rates, as we’ve been calling for, and wider energy support – measures that will reduce pressure and incentivise investment, so we see real, sustained growth.”